Turbulence, Tariffs, Threats & Trust
From tariffs to tax cuts, new policy shifts are impacting the markets in a radioactive way. Trump’s first term was defined by an aggressive stance on trade, particularly with China. With rising geopolitical tensions and a growing bipartisan push for reshoring, renewed threats of tariffs on imports could in the long-game benefit domestic manufacturers and infrastructure plays but are bound to hurt multinational corporations relying on global supply chains.
Investors are watching corporate earnings closely, particularly in consumer goods, automotive, and tech, where higher input costs could erode margins. Some, like Aston Martin, announced job cuts due to supply chain issues and production delays. Others, like Rolls-Royce, announced stock buy backs valued at £1 billion (€1.2bn) and a restart of dividend payments for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic sending its share price soaring. New tariffs could hit US consumers hard, leading to higher prices on imports, and reduced demand and layoff fears in the domestic industry.
The markets, notoriously averse to uncertainty, are driving wild swings in sentiment. The fear factor is currently driving investor behavior, leading to sharp declines in even the strongest stocks. On February 25th, 2025, CNN’s Greed & Fear Index plunged to 25. Maybe it’s a sign... or just a brutal case of investors saying: ‘I’ll pass (2-5) on risk today.’
History tells us that this turbulence won’t last forever, and that fundamentals win overtime. Ultimately, market confidence rests on trust in economic policies, in corporate governance, and in the institutions that underpin capitalism.
For businesses and investors, the challenge is distinguishing between noise and meaningful shifts. Markets have weathered massive swings like this before, but in 2025, they’ll be doing it in a vastly different economic and geo-political climate.
But in a market facing crosswinds from all sides, investors will need more than a compass—they’ll need a strategy built for turbulence.
